Welcome to July
Summer is officially here along with HOT weather. Junuary’s cold wet and sometimes downright nasty weather was only a few short weeks ago but seems like a long time ago now that we have warm dry weather and the need for air conditioners. It’s funny how quickly things can change.
The real estate market is seeing increased listings, lower sales, and yet short selling times and firm prices in most areas. Calgary is still the only seller’s market in Canada. In most areas of BC it is a fairly balanced market with sales to listing ratios in the mid teens.
The stock markets are still hitting record highs, while the Canadian and US economies are seeing higher unemployment, dropping inflation and lower consumer confidence. A US election this fall and a provincial one in British Columbia should provide more commentary to our economic analyses. But like our weather change from Junuary to hot summer, the economy can also change quickly to the up or downside.
So what is does the future hold for our real estate market and economy? More of the same. We have good managers in the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve and they are careful to use interest rates and other tools to keep the economy from going into recession or alternatively overheating.
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Vancouver Real Estate listings were up 4.3% from May 2023 and 42% from a year earlier. Values are up 6.2% from June 2023 and marginally from May 2024. Vancouver Housing Market: Jul. 4th, 2024 Update | Map Regional Breakdown - WOWA.ca
Fraser Valley Real Estate sales dropped 13% from May 2024 and 30% from June 2023. New listings dropped 9% from May 2024 and values were relatively stable. Fraser Valley home sales fall despite Bank of Canada rate cut – Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (fvreb.bc.ca)
Calgary Real Estate for June 2024 saw the average price increase by 13% while the number of sales decreased by the same 13%. New listings decreased 3.6% and Calgary is still a sellers market. Calgary Housing Market Report: Jul. 3rd, 2024 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca
Looking at these numbers I see something that most experts aren’t talking about. The capital gains tax increase that the federal government brought into effective late June, brought a lot of property on the market in a short time in mid to late May and ending on the June 25th deadline. In speaking with our accountants and real estate and tax planning lawyers, they were overwhelmed with clients seeking advice and selling their real estate holdings prior to the deadline to take the lower capital gain.
This one-time unusual event, in my opinion, had a temporary adverse affect on the real estate markets in Canada and in the following months we should see lower levels of listing and firming up of sale prices. The main problems facing our housing are still in full effect – increasing demand due to immigration, and limited supply. Even with all the projects supported by all levels of government we still will not have enough housing units available in the next decade.
Sincerely,
Norm Holmes, Vice President